Saturday, March 18, 2006
Getting Perspective on Iraq and Terrorism Data
My earlier post, here , generated a comment about the Oxford Research International poll that produced the Iraqi opinion statistics used in the article. We agree that the poll was positive, but the comment asks for more detailed demographic breakout data. Since I don't have any more information than is available at Oxford or the BBC, I thought I'd mention a blogger who is much more knowledgeable about polls and polling techniques and has some interesting data about terrorism.
D.J.Drummond posts extensively on these topics on the PoliPundit and Stolen Thunder blogs. He has begun a Stolen Thunder series onBlood and Bigotry . This excerpt from Part 2 of the series develops a very interesting insight from available data:
"According to the Terrorism Knowledge Base, since the September 11th attacks 45.6% of all terrorist attacks have happened in the Middle East and 57.7% of all fatalities from such attacks (here). North America has only received 0.5% of the attacks and 0.04% of the fatalities. Even Western Europe has only suffered 10.6% of the attacks, and only 1.4% of the fatalities. Only 2.17% of terrorist attacks have been against military targets in that time, while 2.53% of the attacks have been terrorists attacking other terrorist groups. 17.69% of the attacks have been attempts to destabilize governments, with 12.27% against private businesses, 7.34% against police and 6.02% against transportation, like buses and trains.
What this means in plain English, is that the terrorists are attacking Arabs more often than Americans, and civilians much more often than police. The terrorists are trying to destabilize Iraq and Lebanon and Egypt, far more than they are doing anything in France or England or Spain, no matter what we see on TV. The terrorists are worried about the Iraqi Army and Police, and about regular people. One must consider the import of that fact."
I think that's an interesting insight; it's important to keep a broad perspective of events to understand an enemy's intentions and strategy as well as his real strength or weakness.
D.J.Drummond posts extensively on these topics on the PoliPundit and Stolen Thunder blogs. He has begun a Stolen Thunder series onBlood and Bigotry . This excerpt from Part 2 of the series develops a very interesting insight from available data:
"According to the Terrorism Knowledge Base, since the September 11th attacks 45.6% of all terrorist attacks have happened in the Middle East and 57.7% of all fatalities from such attacks (here). North America has only received 0.5% of the attacks and 0.04% of the fatalities. Even Western Europe has only suffered 10.6% of the attacks, and only 1.4% of the fatalities. Only 2.17% of terrorist attacks have been against military targets in that time, while 2.53% of the attacks have been terrorists attacking other terrorist groups. 17.69% of the attacks have been attempts to destabilize governments, with 12.27% against private businesses, 7.34% against police and 6.02% against transportation, like buses and trains.
What this means in plain English, is that the terrorists are attacking Arabs more often than Americans, and civilians much more often than police. The terrorists are trying to destabilize Iraq and Lebanon and Egypt, far more than they are doing anything in France or England or Spain, no matter what we see on TV. The terrorists are worried about the Iraqi Army and Police, and about regular people. One must consider the import of that fact."
I think that's an interesting insight; it's important to keep a broad perspective of events to understand an enemy's intentions and strategy as well as his real strength or weakness.
