Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Trolling and Polling for Social Security
This Washington Post article states Support for Bush on Social Security Wanes , claiming that : "Barely a third of the public approves of the way President Bush is dealing with Social Security and a majority says the more they hear about Bush's plan to reform the giant retirement system, the less they like it, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll."
The poll was conducted 10-13 March 05. The actual poll raw date can be found here (Post-ABC News Poll) and the results are lot more positive for the Bush position than the article would indicate. The poll shows 56% support letting people choose to put some of their SS tax into stock market investments; and shows 71% believe that, if changes are not made, the SS system is heading for a crisis. That suggests to me that Bush is getting his message across; so why are the Post and the NYT claiming that he is going down in flames?
Byron York takes a different view of the same poll in his NRO article Winning Numbers? , saying that " The Social Security debate seems increasingly to be taking place on two tracks — some might say in parallel universes ". As he sees it, the Post did a bit of poll trolling to get answers it could talk about; and he gives some good examples.
York notes that : "The 56-percent support figure — 60 percent and higher among respondents under 50 years of age — is the highest level of support on that question in the last six Post polls going back before the 2000 election. The 41-percent figure is the lowest level of opposition in the last six Post polls going back before the 2000 election." He also notes that the siginficance of 71% fearing a "crisis down the road" is that threshold meets " a perception that the president's advisers call a "precondition to authentic reform."" (I think this translates as Bush is meeting his Phase 1 goal (precondition) of getting folks to see the need for reform now and for some individual choice on investments.)
The York article is a good guide for reading between the lines on stories about polls and this story in particular. I don't know whether we are seeing the waning of the Bush effort or the waxing of the media oppositional hysteria in these polls. But I do believe that Social Security reform is needed and that Individual Accounts are the essential ingredient to assure long term sustainable solvency for the system. I hope enough people are getting to that point ; so the political debate can shift to how best to implement the changes.
The poll was conducted 10-13 March 05. The actual poll raw date can be found here (Post-ABC News Poll) and the results are lot more positive for the Bush position than the article would indicate. The poll shows 56% support letting people choose to put some of their SS tax into stock market investments; and shows 71% believe that, if changes are not made, the SS system is heading for a crisis. That suggests to me that Bush is getting his message across; so why are the Post and the NYT claiming that he is going down in flames?
Byron York takes a different view of the same poll in his NRO article Winning Numbers? , saying that " The Social Security debate seems increasingly to be taking place on two tracks — some might say in parallel universes ". As he sees it, the Post did a bit of poll trolling to get answers it could talk about; and he gives some good examples.
York notes that : "The 56-percent support figure — 60 percent and higher among respondents under 50 years of age — is the highest level of support on that question in the last six Post polls going back before the 2000 election. The 41-percent figure is the lowest level of opposition in the last six Post polls going back before the 2000 election." He also notes that the siginficance of 71% fearing a "crisis down the road" is that threshold meets " a perception that the president's advisers call a "precondition to authentic reform."" (I think this translates as Bush is meeting his Phase 1 goal (precondition) of getting folks to see the need for reform now and for some individual choice on investments.)
The York article is a good guide for reading between the lines on stories about polls and this story in particular. I don't know whether we are seeing the waning of the Bush effort or the waxing of the media oppositional hysteria in these polls. But I do believe that Social Security reform is needed and that Individual Accounts are the essential ingredient to assure long term sustainable solvency for the system. I hope enough people are getting to that point ; so the political debate can shift to how best to implement the changes.
