Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Meanwhile, Down Home In PA
Since I've been talking about national political polls and analyses, it seems fair to mention what's being written about Pennslyvania. These two items are interesting; although I doubt their predictive power or impact.
It seems early to start polling for the 2006 elections, but this Pennsylvannia SurveyUSA Election Poll is out and shows a slight lead for Casey over Santorum in the race for Senator and and a comparable lead for Rendell over Swann for Governor. Santorum's strength seems to be in the Northeast and the central "T"; Swann's in the West and the "T". If these two Republicans could combine their appeal in the West and Northeast, it would cause the Democrats to rely on the Southeast for victory. Of course,this might not be a real problem since, in 2004, Philadelphia County gave Kerry enough votes to surpass Bush's 280,000 lead in the rest of the state.
Then again, maybe Gov. Rendell's performance in office will be more of a problem for him. He managed to get one of the four "F's" for 2004 performance given to State Governors by the Libertarian CATO Institute. From the summary in CATO's Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors: 2004 :
"As states continue to claw their way out of the worst state budget hole in years, this report presents the findings of the Cato Institute's seventh biennial fiscal policy report card on the nation's governors. The report card's grading is based on 15 objective measures of fiscal performance. Governors who have cut taxes and spending the most receive the highest grades. Those who have increased spending and taxes the most receive the lowest grades. Our analysis shows that states that keep tax rates low and restrain spending growth have the best economic performance and thus the best longterm fiscal health.
This year, four governors receive the grade of A: Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, Craig Benson of New Hampshire, Bill Owens of Colorado, and Judy Martz of Montana. Four governors receive Fs for their poor performance in dealing with the state fiscal crisis: Bob Holden of Missouri, Bob Taft of Ohio, Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania, and James McGreevey of New Jersey."
It seems early to start polling for the 2006 elections, but this Pennsylvannia SurveyUSA Election Poll is out and shows a slight lead for Casey over Santorum in the race for Senator and and a comparable lead for Rendell over Swann for Governor. Santorum's strength seems to be in the Northeast and the central "T"; Swann's in the West and the "T". If these two Republicans could combine their appeal in the West and Northeast, it would cause the Democrats to rely on the Southeast for victory. Of course,this might not be a real problem since, in 2004, Philadelphia County gave Kerry enough votes to surpass Bush's 280,000 lead in the rest of the state.
Then again, maybe Gov. Rendell's performance in office will be more of a problem for him. He managed to get one of the four "F's" for 2004 performance given to State Governors by the Libertarian CATO Institute. From the summary in CATO's Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors: 2004 :
"As states continue to claw their way out of the worst state budget hole in years, this report presents the findings of the Cato Institute's seventh biennial fiscal policy report card on the nation's governors. The report card's grading is based on 15 objective measures of fiscal performance. Governors who have cut taxes and spending the most receive the highest grades. Those who have increased spending and taxes the most receive the lowest grades. Our analysis shows that states that keep tax rates low and restrain spending growth have the best economic performance and thus the best longterm fiscal health.
This year, four governors receive the grade of A: Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, Craig Benson of New Hampshire, Bill Owens of Colorado, and Judy Martz of Montana. Four governors receive Fs for their poor performance in dealing with the state fiscal crisis: Bob Holden of Missouri, Bob Taft of Ohio, Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania, and James McGreevey of New Jersey."
