Friday, March 11, 2005
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Syria and More
With the Hezbollah Beirut rally as a counterpoint to the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon, it's time to review the current status of Mid-East transformation there. These three articles provide a good review as well as some background context.
Let's start with this article on Lebanon that asks is Syria, Leaving with a Bang? . It could be subtitled as "Follow the Money and Fear". According to the author the foremost factor is that "Assad is playing for his own survival. In fact if Assad leaves Lebanon, then his regime's days are numbered. He is a desperate man." Moreover, Lebanon is Syria's cash cow, bringing in $5.5Billion per year to Syria whose total exports are only $5.1Billion. Syrian unemployment is about 22% and 500,000 Sryian workers are employed in Lebanon, sending money back home. (How big was that Hezbollah rally in Beirut? Could there have been Syrians workers there?). The author makes a good case that Syria is setting up the arms and forces for serious resistance to anything other than the appearences of cooperation and that Hezbollah is the muscle to provide the "Bang".
This interview with Barbara Newman on Hezbollah is pretty scary stuff. Hezbollah seems to be a mighty tough bunch, even if there are only about 25,000 hard core members : "the A team of terrorism" according to former Deputy Secretary of State Armitage; "they are the best light infantry in the world and can strike the United States any time any where" according to a former FBI honcho. I'd agree that any group of bad guys can strike us most anywhere; it's one of the perils of a free society. As to "best light infantry" - well, that would be a lot more credible coming from a US Marine or Army SOF General than an ex- FBI official.
I do think Hezbollah is very dangerous and probably doubly so with its back to the wall in Lebanon today. This terrorist group clearly can get a very large crowd together for a rally - but does that represent Lebanese speaking out for their own freedom ? Or is it a crowd of the coerced or of foriegn workers as others claim? After all, Hezbollah is the only organized (non-Army) group in Lebanon with guns. Ms. Newman also worries that Hezbollah has a presence in the US , which may well be true, and that it "is a terrorist group whose ideology advocates the killing of Americans." Well, the best way to counter that problem is not to cower from it, but to deal with it directly and engage them where they are the big target - in Lebanon and Syria.
Engaging the enemy on his ground and recognizing the enemy are two key traits always on display in Michael Ledeen's writing and he does not disappoint in this article on Syria . He notes that the Lebanese situation can still go bad and puts it all in the context of the overall Mid-East War or Terror War. The key to winning a war is to know your enemies. As, he reminds us, before we invaded Iraq, "the Iraqis, Syrians, and Iranians (with considerable support from the Saudis) had a precise model for the post-Saddam terror war. Indeed it had already been successfully tested ... against us (and the French) in Lebanon in the mid-1980s." He argues well that we are engaged already in a vital winner-take -all struggle with the Syrian and Iranian regimes.
Fortunately, those regimes are shaky, holding power by pointing guns at their own citizens. Their people see the example of the Iraq and Afganistan elections and hear our call for democracy clearly. But that is not enough and this "is not a moment to bask in glory, or to believe that history is irrevocably on our side. We must press ahead." This article provides considerable detail on and insight into what's happening in those countries and on how we could proceed. I hope the administration is listening. We may be at the "End of the Beginning" in Churchill's phrase, but much can still go wrong before we get to the "End".
Let's start with this article on Lebanon that asks is Syria, Leaving with a Bang? . It could be subtitled as "Follow the Money and Fear". According to the author the foremost factor is that "Assad is playing for his own survival. In fact if Assad leaves Lebanon, then his regime's days are numbered. He is a desperate man." Moreover, Lebanon is Syria's cash cow, bringing in $5.5Billion per year to Syria whose total exports are only $5.1Billion. Syrian unemployment is about 22% and 500,000 Sryian workers are employed in Lebanon, sending money back home. (How big was that Hezbollah rally in Beirut? Could there have been Syrians workers there?). The author makes a good case that Syria is setting up the arms and forces for serious resistance to anything other than the appearences of cooperation and that Hezbollah is the muscle to provide the "Bang".
This interview with Barbara Newman on Hezbollah is pretty scary stuff. Hezbollah seems to be a mighty tough bunch, even if there are only about 25,000 hard core members : "the A team of terrorism" according to former Deputy Secretary of State Armitage; "they are the best light infantry in the world and can strike the United States any time any where" according to a former FBI honcho. I'd agree that any group of bad guys can strike us most anywhere; it's one of the perils of a free society. As to "best light infantry" - well, that would be a lot more credible coming from a US Marine or Army SOF General than an ex- FBI official.
I do think Hezbollah is very dangerous and probably doubly so with its back to the wall in Lebanon today. This terrorist group clearly can get a very large crowd together for a rally - but does that represent Lebanese speaking out for their own freedom ? Or is it a crowd of the coerced or of foriegn workers as others claim? After all, Hezbollah is the only organized (non-Army) group in Lebanon with guns. Ms. Newman also worries that Hezbollah has a presence in the US , which may well be true, and that it "is a terrorist group whose ideology advocates the killing of Americans." Well, the best way to counter that problem is not to cower from it, but to deal with it directly and engage them where they are the big target - in Lebanon and Syria.
Engaging the enemy on his ground and recognizing the enemy are two key traits always on display in Michael Ledeen's writing and he does not disappoint in this article on Syria . He notes that the Lebanese situation can still go bad and puts it all in the context of the overall Mid-East War or Terror War. The key to winning a war is to know your enemies. As, he reminds us, before we invaded Iraq, "the Iraqis, Syrians, and Iranians (with considerable support from the Saudis) had a precise model for the post-Saddam terror war. Indeed it had already been successfully tested ... against us (and the French) in Lebanon in the mid-1980s." He argues well that we are engaged already in a vital winner-take -all struggle with the Syrian and Iranian regimes.
Fortunately, those regimes are shaky, holding power by pointing guns at their own citizens. Their people see the example of the Iraq and Afganistan elections and hear our call for democracy clearly. But that is not enough and this "is not a moment to bask in glory, or to believe that history is irrevocably on our side. We must press ahead." This article provides considerable detail on and insight into what's happening in those countries and on how we could proceed. I hope the administration is listening. We may be at the "End of the Beginning" in Churchill's phrase, but much can still go wrong before we get to the "End".
